There is potentially good news about the rate of dementia, but it comes with a few caveats. Even prior to the pandemic, according to a University of Michigan study, the rate of people living with dementia was decreasing by an average yearly rate of 2.8% from 2011 through 2019. When periods including the pandemic  were included in the range (2011-2021), the rate of decline jumped to 3.1%. Researchers point to the increased number of deaths among this population during COVID as a primary reason for the further reduction in the rate of people living with dementia.

This latest report joins a growing body of research finding a decline in dementia prevalence in the United States. Harvard researchers, for example, calculated that the rate of new cases declined 13% per decade between 1988 and 2015. Suggested causes for the decline include the trend to the better education and healthier lifestyle among the newer generation of older adults entering their 70s.

Even with some data revealing a reduction in the rate of dementia cases, many experts still predict a dramatic increase in the number of older adults with dementia. Since the cause of the reported decline is unclear, it is difficult to validate that the trend will continue indefinitely. The longer-term effects of COVID-19 infection, particularly among an older population more likely to experience multiple bouts, remain to be determined. Moreover, the sheer size of the aging Baby Boom generation may cause growth that will place additional strain on long-term care and support systems.